Did Mary Peltola Win the Alaska Senate Race? Inside the Razor-Thin Vote Count, Sullivan’s Lead, and the Ranked Choice Waiting Game

Mary Peltola has not won the Alaska U.S. Senate race, as election workers continue tabulating votes in a nail-biting showdown against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. With more than three-quarters of precincts reporting, Sullivan holds a slight lead after both candidates repeatedly traded the advantage through early returns.

The high-stakes battle remains officially uncalled. Because Alaska law requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of first-choice votes to win outright, the final result will likely hinge on the state’s ranked choice voting system, with tabulations scheduled for Nov. 18.

Peltola told a cheering crowd of supporters at the Sheraton Anchorage Hotel that she sensed a major political shift. Sullivan, speaking across town at the Hotel Captain Cook, projected equal confidence about holding his seat once all ballots are processed.

“I’m confident when all the votes are counted, I will have the honor of representing you in the United States Senate again for six more years,” Sullivan told his supporters.

Why the Alaska Senate Race Remains Undecided

Alaska’s election mechanics mean late-night returns rarely tell the full story. The state accepts mail-in and absentee ballots for days following the election, leaving thousands of potential votes uncounted in the immediate aftermath.

If neither Sullivan nor Peltola crosses the outright 50% threshold in first-preference votes, election officials will eliminate lower-performing candidates and reallocate their second-choice selections. That ranked choice process takes nearly two weeks to complete.

The Two-Week Timeline to a Final Certified Victor

• Ongoing vote processing: Precincts and absentee boards continue counting eligible ballots arriving over the coming days.
• The 50% threshold test: Officials review whether either candidate captured an outright majority of first-place selections.
• Ranked choice tabulation: If no candidate clears 50%, state officials will execute the ranked choice reallocation run on Nov. 18.

The Ballot-Stacking Controversy Rocking the Final Stretch

The closing days of the Mary Peltola race were overshadowed by fierce legal fights surrounding a second candidate named Dan Sullivan. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a resident of Petersburg, qualified for the ballot and drew accusations of deliberate voter confusion.

A major news investigation reported that this duplicate candidacy stemmed from a coordinated Democratic recruitment push, citing a former campaign manager fired by Peltola. Peltola quickly pushed back against allegations that she directed the maneuver.

“I’m sure that I was kept out of it because they know I would never allow this,” Peltola told reporters.

The U.S. Department of Justice intervened with legal action seeking to block certification if Sen. Sullivan lost, pending inquiries into whether voters picked the wrong name by accident. While a judge dismissed the case because checking individual ballots would breach voter secrecy, the Justice Department filed an appeal, and U.S. Attorney for Alaska Michael Heyman initiated an inquiry.

Myth vs. Reality: Alaska’s Election Process

The Myth: Whichever candidate leads the first batch of election night returns has effectively won the seat.

The Reality: Alaska’s open-primary and ranked choice voting structure makes early totals deceptive. Back in 2022, Peltola leveraged second-choice preferences to win a special U.S. House election following the death of longtime Congressman Don Young, proving that second- and third-choice rankings can alter the outcome.

Peltola previously represented Alaska at-large in the U.S. House after winning in 2022, before losing her seat in 2024 to Republican Rep. Nick Begich III. If she rallies past Sullivan, she will become the first Democrat to claim an Alaska Senate seat since Mark Begich in 2008.

Sullivan is relying on strong turnout in Republican areas like the Kenai Peninsula to protect his lead and fend off Democratic gains. For now, neither campaign can declare victory until every valid ballot across the state is counted.

💬 With ranked choice tabulation set for Nov. 18, the outcome of this historic Senate fight remains anyone’s game.

📱 Drop your thoughts in the comments below: do you think ranked choice preferences will flip the lead or secure Sullivan’s seat?

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